Stavreski: IMF confirms economic growth higher than expected

Macedonia's economy is recovering, growth has increased, exceeding our expectations, the IMF has assessed after its regular 10-day mission in Macedonia.

"We have raised the 2013 projections to about 2.5 percent. The key growth indicators are public investments, net-exports, along with the increasing exports by foreign multinational companies", said Mission chief Ivanna Vladkova Hollar.

Policies have begun to move in the sense of completing the cycle of loosening the monetary policy and implementation of the planned lowering of the fiscal deficit beginning with the 2014 budget, says the IMF.

Realization of priority capital expenditures will also need to be protected, whereas the Government should have firm control over the debt of public enterprises, monitoring their operations.

The IMF also suggests enhancement of ties between foreign direct investments and the domestic production sector.

"The emergence of a chain of competitive and qualified offer will reduce imports and improve the structural trade balance", stressed Hollar.

The Mission welcomes the release of the mid-term fiscal strategy, suggesting harmonization of the fiscal consolidation tempo with the speed of the economic recovery.

"If the demand shows signs of recovery more than expected, authorities should commit to faster consolidation", added the IMF Mission chief.

Vice Premier and Finance Minister Zoran Stavreski said the Macedonian economy recovered better than expected.

"Results in the first nine months exceed projections, which gives us hope that we will achieve better results by the end of 2013", added Stavreski.

According to him, the GDP growth would range from 2.5 to 3 percent, with a possibility of even better result if the European economy additionally recovers.

"The growth is generated from the Government's policies and comes as a result of the public and capital investments, as well as attraction of foreign investments, which perform well in the section of exports", stressed FinMin Stavreski.

He said the policy of continual increase of public investments had proved beneficial for numerous sectors, primarily construction, but industry had also contributed to Macedonia's positive results.

"Expectations are that the economic growth could improve in coming years, provided the European economy recovers. However, even in times of stagnating Europe, we are achieving three-percent growth rates, which shows that economic policies are well-positioned", emphasized Stavreski.

He added that Macedonia was also in a better position compared to other countries regarding the debt sustainability and servicing of liabilities.

"The state debt amounts to 34 percent of the GDP, which is the fourth-lowest in Europe and will remain so in the future. Macedonia will not exceed the indebtedness limit, remaining safely in the zone of moderately indebted states", said the FinMin.

Stabilization of the fiscal deficit would result in gradual debt reduction.

"There is complete agreement between the Government's policies and the IMF in the section of the budget deficit. The fiscal consolidation will follow a pace proper for the economy's recovery. Since Macedonia is less indebted, over-restrictive measures are not required, but there is still a need for gradual reduction of the budget deficit in the mid-term, starting from next year", underlined Stavreski.

The National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) also sees the country recovering better than expected, along with its acceleration next year.

"The growth was primarily guided by the public and foreign direct investments, expanding to more sectors in the future, whereas the domestic private sector should take the growth burden in time", assessed Governor Dimitar Bogov.

According to the NBRM, inflation would continue to take a downward trend, gravitating at about two percent in the next couple of years, foreign deficit would not exceed three percent, the policy of maintaining a stable Denar exchange rate is not in question. The monetary policy is appropriately designed, able to respond to every challenge and maintain the foreign currency exchange rate stability.